The Cost of War: Understanding the Economic Consequences of Russia’s War in Ukraine
- Liam Kelly
- Jan 11
- 2 min read
Updated: Feb 20
Liam Kelly
Abstract
This paper analyzes the driving factors of Russia’s contemporary war economy in an effort to explain why its attempts to cripple Ukraine in what has become a war of attrition have pushed its economy to the brink of collapse. This paper explores Russia’s economic vulnerabilities exposed by unprecedented Western sanctioning initiatives, Russia’s initial resilience through sanction evasion and defense spending, and the costs of prolonged war that have exacerbated chronic economic failures resulting in inevitable economic destruction. By evaluating the economic repercussions of extreme militarization, this paper argues that Russia has trapped itself in an unwinnable conflict, even if it “succeeds” in its invasion of Ukraine.
I. Introduction
The Russo-Ukrainian War marks a critical juncture for the global balance of economic and political power in the post-war era. In a series of attacks that have repeatedly violated the international principle of territorial sovereignty, namely their illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has sparked the largest and most deadly European conflict since World War II. As a result of Russian aggression, Western nations have levied sanctions at an unprecedented scale, but despite facing intermittent recession, Russia has generally maintained positive economic growth and sustained its military capacity to engage in Ukraine. Though the apparent resilience of the Russian economy has “confounded many strategists who expected Western sanctions to paralyze Moscow’s war effort against Ukraine,” as the conflict marches on, the limits of Russia’s war economy become increasingly discernible.
There is a prevailing notion that war is good for economies—many economists and historians cite the booming economic expansion of the United States, Britain, and Germany during the Second World War as evidence that conflict stimulates productivity and growth given. . .
Comments